UFO-UAP Sightings and Estimate of UFO Sightings Per Year

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         Throughout history, there have been countless reports of strange aerial phenomena that have left both experts and everyday individuals pondering their origins. UFO sightings are not a recent occurrence; they have been documented throughout history in various forms. I personally have not observed a UFO but instead have been visited by aliens over one hundred times spanning more than fifty years so of course am very interested in this subject. 

Historical Accounts of UFO Sightings

Ancient civilizations, such as the Egyptians and Mayans, depicted strange objects in their artwork that resemble modern-day descriptions of UFOs. A mass sighting of UFO’s was reported to have occurred in 1561 above Nuremberg around dawn on 14 April 1561. Many men and women of Nuremberg saw what was described  as an aerial battle followed by the appearance of a large black triangular object and spheres that were apparently defeated were falling to earth in clouds of smoke. It was reported that witnesses observed hundreds of spheres, cylinders, and other odd-shaped objects moving erratically overhead.

Modern Day UFO Sightings

In more recent times, the famous "Foo Fighters" observed by pilots during World War II sparked widespread interest in UFO’s. This was followed by a famous incident that occurred in 1947, when a pilot named Kenneth Arnold reported seeing nine crescent-shaped objects flying at very high speeds near Mount Rainier, Washington. This event, often referred to as the "Kenneth Arnold sighting," marked the beginning of the modern UFO era. Then of course is the famous and very well-known Roswell incident of 1947, where an alleged UFO crash in New Mexico sparked a wave of controversy and conspiracy theories that persist to this day. These historical accounts and others began to raise interesting questions about the possibility of extraterrestrial visitations and their influence on human civilization.

While skeptics may dismiss UFO sightings as misinterpretations of natural phenomena, hoaxes, or psychological phenomena, there is a significant amount of documented evidence that cannot be easily ignored. Photographs, videos, radar data, and eyewitness testimonies provide concrete evidence of what is now referred to as UAPs (unexplained aerial phenomena). The release of previously classified information by governments has further added to the body of evidence. Additionally, there have been encounters where multiple witnesses, including pilots and military personnel, have observed the same UAP simultaneously, strengthening the credibility of these sightings.

UFO Sightings and Government Involvement

In 1947, the US Air Force began Project Sign to determine whether UFOs were a threat to national security, and to scientifically analyze the data on UFO sightings. The initial findings from the project were written up in 1948, and they concluded that flying saucers were real phenomena, were not made by the United States or the Soviet Union, and were likely extraterrestrial in origin. This conclusion was rejected by USAF Chief of Staff General Vandenberg, who stated that there was insufficient physical proof, and he then dismantled Project Sign.

At the end of 1948, Project Grudge was initiated by the US Air Force, and many believed that its mandate was to debunk the UFO sightings that had been reported. It concluded that all the UFO sightings were either natural phenomena or otherwise mistakenly identified, but it did state that twenty-three percent of the sightings could not be explained.

          Several influential US Air Force generals were dissatisfied with the UFO investigations under Project Grudge, so in March of 1952, Project Blue Book began. It continued to investigate UFOs, but it in the latter years it was believed that very few serious investigations were being done, and it too had become more of a means of debunking UFO sightings. In 1969, Project Blue Book was closed.  

Estimated Number of UFO Sightings Per Year Worldwide

     While doing research for my book Aliens Are With Us I attempted to find some current data on UFO and alien sightings or encounters as well as statistics on investigations that have been done on these encounters. There are several excellent organizations such as the Mutual UFO Network (MUFON) and the National UFO Reporting Center (NUFORC) where individuals can report their sightings but I was not able to find much data on thorough investigations that have been done. Therefore in the absence of good recent data I’ve created a probabilistic argument (which uses probability and logic in uncertain situations) to estimate these numbers and based the root numbers on the data collected from Project Blue Book because it seems to contain the most thorough data that has been analyzed on alien encounters.

If we revisit the data from Project Blue Book and update the scope to get the full picture of the number of sightings that realistically have occurred worldwide, the numbers get very interesting. From 1947 to 1969, there were 12,618 sightings reported to the US Air Force Project Blue Book team out of which 701 remained ‘unidentified’ in spite of the intense scrutiny given to debunk them. But those were just sightings that occurred in the United States, and we only make up about six percent of the world’s population, so if the number of sightings was gathered worldwide, it could potentially be over sixteen times that. Additionally, those are just the sightings that were reported to Project Blue Book, but there are many, many more people like me who have been keeping quiet about their sightings and experiences because they don’t want to be ridiculed, harassed, or possibly have their job security impacted. So, I would say that very, very conservatively, only thirty percent of the sightings or contact with aliens that occur would actually be reported to something like Project Blue book. And lastly the world’s population has more than doubled since those years so that also needs to be factored in. So, if you do the math, we would have the results below. I facetiously named it the ‘Rountree equation’ but then again thought why not formalize it because it might help to bring some attention to the number of alien encounters happening worldwide.

Rountree equation – estimated number of alien sightings or encounters per year worldwide:

N = Pt / Ft / Fr * Pi / Pn
N = 12,618 / .06 / .3 * 2.7 / 22

N = 86,031

 

Rountree equation – estimated number of ‘unidentified’ alien sightings or encounters per year worldwide:

Nu = Pu / Ft / Fr * Pi / Pn
Nu = 701 / .06 / .3 * 2.7 / 22

Nu = 4,779

where

N = estimated number of alien sightings or encounters per year worldwide

or Nu = estimated number of ‘unidentified’ alien sightings or encounters per year worldwide

and

Pt = total number of Project Blue Book (PBB) encounters

or Pu = number of ‘unidentified’ PBB encounters

Ft = the fraction US population is of world total

Fr = the fraction of sightings reported to PBB

Pi = population increase since PBB

Pn = number of years PBB data was collected

 

Bill Rountree appeared to be living a very normal suburban lifestyle in Atlanta, Georgia but at age 11 realized he was being visited by intelligent life from another place or time. Unable to convince others of his ongoing experiences he ignored his visitors as best he could and continued to live his life eventually graduating with honors from a top 100 university with a major in Management Information Systems. He has now retired and written a book about his experiences but for the last twenty five years of his career he was a Senior Project Manager for large information technology projects for major corporations including Sprint PCS, Cocoa Cola and many others - while still being observed and visited by what he came to know were aliens from another world. Bill was previously married and is the father of a successful thirty-three year old son and currently spends his time between his home in Florida, his cabin in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California and on his sailboat in Southern California.

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